Friday, June 8, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – May 2018


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During May, some Northern and Central Islands received an excess of rainfall than is normal for the season by upto0 180 mm. However the Northern Islands which had been having a rainfall deficit in the last year is not fully recovered from the below normal rainfall.  The Central Islands have made up for the deficit while the Southern Islands are having a good year.
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is average.   

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in the central and southern islands on the 11th. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm for the central islands during June 4th-9th. 



Northern islands received up to 600 mm of total rainfall in May
 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In June, average rainfall usually is about 250 mm in the northern islands and 150 mm in the southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually westerly but with low speeds. In July, the entire country receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind speed and direction does not change. In August, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed is similar to previous months.

Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:


Date Rainfall
21st  May 2018 Up to 30 mm in central and southern islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands.
22nd  May 2018 Up to 30 mm in northern and central islands and up to 20 mm in southern islands.
23rd -24th  May 2018 Up to 50 mm in northern and central islands and up to 30 mm in southern islands.
25th May 2018 Up to 20 mm in central and southern islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands.
26th May  2018 Up to 20 mm in northern and central islands.
27th  May 2018 Up to 20 mm in central islands and up to 10 mm in southern islands.
28th May 2018 Up to 10 mm in northern islands.
29th May 2018Up to 30 mm in southern islands.
30th May 2018 Up to 20 mm in southern islands.
31st May 2018Up to 5 mm in northern and southern islands.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In May, Northern islands and Male atoll received rainfall more than 240 mm above the monthly average; and southern islands up to 180 mm below the average. The northern islands and Male and Addu atolls received up to 600 mm of total rainfall; and rest of the country up to 450 mm. 


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State May 19, 2018:

In mid-May 2018, the east-central tropical Pacific waters reflected ENSO-neutral conditions.   The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for neutral conditions through the September-November season, with a nearly 50% chance of El Niño development by year’s end. The latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models collectively favor weak El Niño development by year’s end, but forecasters hedge on this due to low confidence at this time of year.(
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring May 30, 2018: 

The sea surface temperature around Maldives is Normal.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 2 from 16-26 May and in Phase 3 from 27-29 May. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.






Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 20 mm of daily rain is expected in central and up to 10 mm in the northern and southern islands on June 7th. Up to 10 mm of rainfall is expected in the entire country on the 8h. On the 9th and 10th up to 20 mm rainfall is expected in the northern and central islands and up to 10 mm in the southern islands. Up to 40 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in the central and southern islands on the 11th. On the 12th up to 20 mm rainfall is expected in the northern and central islands and up to 10 mm in the southern islands.





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