Friday, May 4, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – April 2018


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During April, The northern islands received up to 150 mm of total rainfall; central and southern islands up to 450 mm. The cumulative rainfall for the last 365 days shows a significant deficit for the northern islands and an excess for the Southern Islands.
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is Normal.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of daily rain is expected in southern and up to 10 mm in the northern and central islands during May 3rd-4th. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm for the central and southern islands during April 30th- May 5th. May is a month with a history of turbulent weather in the Maldives with the risks being enhanced by the MJO signal being in phase 2. 



Central and southern islands received up to 450 mm of total rainfall in April. 
 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In May, average rainfall is about 200 mm in the entire country. The wind direction is westerly and the speed is higher than in April. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds. In July, the entire country receives up to 200 mm rainfall and the wind speed and direction does not change.

Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:


Date Rainfall
19th  April 2018 Up to 75 mm in southern and central islands and up to 20 mm in northern islands.
20th  April 2018 Up to 100 mm in southern islands and up to 10 mm in central islands.
21st  April2018 Up to 75 mm in central islands and up to 10 mm in southern islands.
22nd -26th April 2018 No Rainfall.
27th April 2018 Up to 10 mm in central islands.
28th  April2018 Up to 75 mm in central islands and up to 20 mm in the northern and southern islands.
29th April 2018 Up to 20 mm in northern and central islands.
30th April 2018Up to 5 mm rainfall in central and southern islands.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In April, central and southern islands received rainfall up to 180 mm above the monthly average; and the northern islands up to 90 mm below the average. The northern islands received up to 150 mm of total rainfall; central and southern islands up to 450 mm. 


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State March 19, 2018:

The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a transition from La Niña to neutral conditions during the March-May season, with a further warming tendency later in the year. The latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models support this scenario.
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring March 28, 2018: 

The sea surface temperature around Maldives is Normal.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 2 from 1-2 Mar and in Phase 3 from 3-11 Mar. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.






Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 40 mm of daily rain is expected in southern and up to 10 mm in the northern and central islands during May 3rd-4th. Up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the central and southern islands; and up to 10 mm in the northern islands on the 5th and 6th. On the 6th, up to 70 mm rainfall is expected in the central islands; and up to 10 mm in the northern islands. Up to 40 mm of rainfall is expected in the central islands; and up to 10 mm in the northern islands on the 7th. On the 8th, up to 40 mm of rainfall is expected in the central islands; and up to 10 mm in the northern and southern islands.
In general the variability of rainfall from year to year is highest in with a greater chance of extremes. Please pay attention to weather predictions – we shall try to update by tweet.





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