Monday, April 9, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – March 2018


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During March, Addu atoll received rainfall up to 60 mm above the monthly average; and rest of the country up to 90 mm below the average. The northern islands received up to 50 mm of total rainfall; central up to 90 mm; and southern islands up to 180 mm.  
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 0.5 0C above average. 

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 20 mm of daily rain is expected in central and up to 10 mm in the northern and southern islands during April 10th-13th. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 50 mm for the central islands during April 8th-13th. 




Addu atoll received rainfall up to 60 mm above the monthly average during March
 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of average rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is easterly and in northern islands, it’s south-easterly. Rainfall usually increase up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds.

Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:


Date Rainfall
16th-19th  March 2018 No Rainfall.
20th  March 2018 Up to 10 mm in central islands.
21st  March 2018 No Rainfall.
22nd March 2018 Up to 5 mm in southern islands.
23rd-24th March 2018 No Rainfall.
25th  March 2018 Up to 5 mm in southern islands.
26th March 2018 Up to 10 mm in central islands.
27th- March 2018 Up to 5 mm in northern islands.
28th-30th March 2018 No Rainfall.
31st March 2018 Up to 10 mm in central islands.


Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In March, Addu atoll received rainfall up to 60 mm above the monthly average; and rest of the country up to 90 mm below the average. The northern islands received up to 50 mm of total rainfall; central up to 90 mm; and southern islands up to 180 mm. 


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State March 19, 2018:

In mid-March 2018, the east-central tropical Pacific still reflected weak La Niña conditions. Most of the key atmospheric variables, however, no longer show patterns suggestive of La Niña, and the east Pacific subsurface water temperature has warmed back to average. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for a transition from La Niña to neutral conditions during the March-May season. The latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models support this scenario.
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring March 28, 2018: 

0.5 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 2 from 1-2 Mar and in Phase 3 from 3-11 Mar. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.






Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 20 mm of daily rain is expected in central and up to 10 mm in the northern and southern islands during April 10th-13th. Up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the southern islands; and up to 10 mm in the central islands on the 14h. On the 15th, up to 20 mm rainfall is expected in the central and southern islands. Up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the central islands; and up to 10 mm in the northern and southern islands on the 16th.





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