Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – February 2018


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During January, Central islands received average rainfall, Northern islands received slightly less than average and southern island of 50 mm above the monthly average. The Northern islands received up to 60 mm of total rainfall; central islands up to 300 mm; and southern islands up to 180 mm during this period. The cumulative rainfall for the last 365 days shows a significant deficit for the Northern islands and an excess for the Southern Islands
The sea surface temperature around Maldives is 1 0C above average. This is extremely warm.


Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rain on March 7th and 8th in the central and southern islands. Up to 70 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands on 11th and 12th. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 50 mm for central and southern islands during 5-10 March.



Central islands received up to 300 mm of total rainfall in February

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In March, northern and central islands receive average rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. Usually in April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is westerly and in northern islands, it is northwesterly. Rainfall usually increase up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases.

Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:


Date Rainfall
18th-23rd  February 2018 Up to 10 mm in central islands.
24th  February 2018 Up to 10 mm in central islands.
25th  February 2018 Up to 50 mm in central islands.
26th February 2018 Up to 100 mm in central islands.
27th-28th February 2018 No Rainfall.
1th  March 2018 Up to 30 mm in central islands.
2nd March 2018 Up to 30 mm in central islands and up to 10 mm in southern islands.
3rd- March 2018 Up to 15 mm in central and southern islands.
4th March 2018 Up to 5 mm in southern islands.


Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In February, Central islands received average rainfall compared to the past average, Northern islands less than average and southern island of 50 mm above the monthly average. The Northern islands received up to 60 mm of total rainfall; central islands up to 300 mm; and southern islands up to 180 mm during this period.


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State February 19, 2018:

In mid-February 2018, the tropical Pacific reflected La Niña conditions, with SSTs in the east-central tropical Pacific in the range of weak to moderate La Niña and most key atmospheric variables showing patterns suggestive of La Niña conditions. The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for La Niña continuing through at least early spring, followed by a likely return to neutral conditions around mid-spring. Support for this scenario is provided by the latest forecasts of statistical and dynamical models.
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring February 28, 2018: 

1 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 7 from 1-18 Feb; in Phase 8 from 19-20; in Phase 1 from 21-24; and in Phase 2 from 25-28. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.






Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 40 mm of rain is expected in Central and Southern islands on March 7th and 8th. Up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in the Central islands on the 9th. On the 10th up to 20 mm rainfall is expected in the Northern and Central islands. On the 11th and 12th up to 70 mm of rainfall is expected in Northern islands and up to 40 mm and 20 mm in Central and Southern islands respectively.





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