Saturday, November 10, 2018

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – October 2018


HIGHLIGHTS


Monitored: During October, central parts of the country received rainfall above than is normal for the season by more than 240 mm; and most parts of southern islands and northern islands by up to 120 mm. The Northern Islands have been having a rainfall deficit in the last year compared to normal rainfall.  Also, the Central Islands have a slight excess of rainfall compared to the average while the Southern Islands are having a good year. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is above 1 0C normal. This is extremely warm. 
Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the southern islands; up to 20 mm in central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands on November 11th, 12th and 13th. On the 14th, up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in central islands and up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands. Long Range Weather prediction simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm for central islands during November 9th -14th. 
Central islands received rainfall above than is normal for the season by more than 240 mm.






 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In November, the whole country usually receives up to 200 mm rain. Wind is westerly. Usually in December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Northern islands get north easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind. In January northern islands receive up to 50 mm rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Wind is north easterly.

MONITORING


Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:


Date Rainfall
19th  October 2018 Up to 20 mm in southern islands.
20th October 2018 Up to 10 mm in southern islands.
21st  October 2018 Up to 30 mm in southern islands and up to 5 mm in northern islands.
22nd October 2018 Up to 10 mm in southern islands.
23rd October 2018 Up to 50 mm in southern islands; up to 20 mm in central; and up to 10 mm in northern islands.
24th October 2018 Up to 10 mm in the entire island.
25th October  2018 Up to 30 mm in central islands and up to 20 mm in southern islands.
26th October 2018Up to 50 mm in central islands and up to 20 mm in the northern and southern islands.
27th October 2018 Up to 50 mm in central and southern islands and up to 20 mm in the northern islands.
28th October 2018Up to 50 mm in central islands; up to 30 mm in southern; and up to 20 mm in northern islands.
29th October 2018 Up to 20 mm in central and southern islands.
30th October  2018Up to 50 mm in central islands and up to 30 mm in southern islands.
31st October 2018Up to 30 mm in central islands and up to 20 mm in southern islands.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In October, Nilandhoo and Kolhuamdulu atolls received up to 60 mm of rainfall below the monthly average. Rest of the central islands received rainfall more than 240 mm above the monthly average; and southern northern islands up to 120 mm. The central islands received up to 600 mm of total rainfall; central and southern islands up to 300 mm. 


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State November 8, 2018:

El Niño-level SSTs were observed in the October average, and the subsurface waters also continued to be warmer than average. However, the atmospheric variables showed mainly ENSO-neutral patterns, including the distribution of cloudiness/rainfall, sea level pressure and upper level winds. Only lower-level wind anomalies were weakly westerly in the eastern Pacific–a suggestion of El Niño.
 (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring September 26, 2018: 

0C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 1 from Oct 1-7; in Phase 2 from Oct 8-13; and  in Phase 3 from 14 -16 Aug. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.





Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS daily rainfall up to 40 mm of is expected in the southern islands; up to 20 mm in central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands on November 11th, 12th and 13th. On the 14th, up to 20 mm of rainfall is expected in central islands and up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands. On the 15th and 16th, up to 20 mm rainfall is expected in the southern and central islands and up to 10 mm in the northern islands. On the 17th, up to 40 mm of rainfall is expected in the southern islands; and up to 10 mm in central islands.





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