Monday, June 30, 2025

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – June 2025

        

HIGHLIGHTS

During the last two weeks of June, the northern islands experienced the highest rainfall, reaching up to 50 mm per day, while remaining islands received less. ENSO-neutral state is likely in the summer 2025.

Monitored: In May, the northern and southern islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. Westerly winds prevailed for the Maldives during the month of May.   

Predictions: ENSO-neutral is likely in the Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (82% chance in June-August) and may continue into winter 2025-26. though confidence is lower (48% chance of Neutral and 41% chance of La Niña in November-January).

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Saturday, May 31, 2025

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – May 2025

       

HIGHLIGHTS

During the last two weeks of May, the central and southern islands experienced the highest rainfall, reaching up to 80 mm per day, while remaining islands received less. In the coming week, rainfall is expected to decrease, with drier conditions prevailing over the first two weeks of May.

Monitored: In April, the southern islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. South-Westerly winds prevailed for the southern and central islands, while Westerly winds prevailed for the northern islands of Maldives during the month of April.  

Predictions: ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (74% chance during June-August), with chances exceeding 50% through August-October 2025.


Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Saturday, April 26, 2025

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – April 2025

      

HIGHLIGHTS

During the last two weeks of April, the central islands experienced the highest rainfall, reaching up to 50 mm per day, while remaining islands received less. In the coming week, rainfall is expected to decrease, with drier conditions prevailing over the first two weeks of May.

Monitored: In March, the central islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. North-Easterly winds prevailed for the northern and central islands, while North-Westerly winds prevailed for the southern islands of Maldives during the month of March. 

Predictions: ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a greater than 50% chance through August-October 2025.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Monday, March 31, 2025

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – March 2025

     

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In February, the central islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. North-Easterly winds prevailed for the Maldives during the month of February.     

Predictions: ENSO-neutral is favoured to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer (62% chance in June-August 2025).


Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Friday, February 28, 2025

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – February 2025

    

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In January, the central islands received up to 25 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. Easterly winds prevailed for northern islands of Maldives during the month of January.    

Predictions: La Niña conditions are expected to persist in the near-term, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (66% chance).


Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Friday, January 31, 2025

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – January 2025

   

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In December, the central islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. Westerly winds prevailed for Maldives during the month of December.      

Predictions: La Niña conditions are present and are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60% chance).


Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

Tuesday, December 31, 2024

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – December 2024

  

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In November, the central islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. Westerly winds prevailed for the central and southern Maldives during the month of November.    

Predictions: La Niña conditions are most likely to emerge in November 2024-January 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely by March-May 2025 (61% chance).


Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI