Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – May 2025

       

HIGHLIGHTS

During the last two weeks of May, the central and southern islands experienced the highest rainfall, reaching up to 80 mm per day, while remaining islands received less. In the coming week, rainfall is expected to decrease, with drier conditions prevailing over the first two weeks of May.

Monitored: In April, the southern islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. South-Westerly winds prevailed for the southern and central islands, while Westerly winds prevailed for the northern islands of Maldives during the month of April.  

Predictions: ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (74% chance during June-August), with chances exceeding 50% through August-October 2025.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In June, average rainfall usually is about 250 mm in the northern islands and 150 mm in the southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually westerly but with low speeds. In July, the entire country receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind speed and direction does not change. In August, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed are similar to previous months.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
12th May	40 mm	50 mm	40 mm
13th May	10 mm	20 mm	40 mm
14th May	10 mm	TR	30 mm
15th May	TR	TR	TR
16th May	TR	-	20 mm
17th May	TR	TR	10 mm
18th May	30 mm	20 mm	10 mm
19th May	40 mm	80 mm	10 mm
20th May	40 mm	30 mm	5 mm
21st May	5 mm	5 mm	-
22nd May	5 mm	-	-
23rd May	10 mm	TR	TR
24th May	10 mm	TR	10 mm
25th May	10 mm	TR	-
26th May	5 mm	TR	-

TR - Trace Value

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In April, the central and southern islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall, the northern islands received up to 5 mm rainfall.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	33.40C	33.00C	32.50C
T Min	24.60C	24.00C	22.60C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

1-10 May, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

                                                       Central Islands:  100 mm rainfall 

                                                       Southern Islands: 160 mm rainfall 

 11-20 May, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

                                                         Central Islands:  100 mm rainfall 

                                                         Southern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State May 19, 2025:

As of mid-May 2025, the equatorial Pacific is in an ENSO-neutral state. The IRI ENSO plume forecast indicates a high probability (92%) of ENSO-neutral conditions for May to July 2025. These neutral conditions are expected to continue through August to October 2025, with probabilities staying above 50%. For later forecast seasons (until Jan-Mar 2026), ENSO-neutral conditions remain the most likely outcome, though probabilities decrease to the 40% range. During the forecast period, neither El Niño nor La Niña shows a strong preference, though La Niña have slightly higher chances compared to El Nino (Text Courtesy IRI).

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 6 - 12 May, 2025: 

0.5⁰C above average SST was observed around the southern islands, while near-neutral SST was observed around the central and northern islands of Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
29th May	10 mm	20 mm	40 mm
30th May	TR	10 mm	TR
31st May	10 mm	20 mm	TR
01st June	20 mm	10 mm	-
02nd June	10 mm	10 mm	40 mm
03rd June	TR	10 mm	10 mm
04th June	TR	-	-

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 40% in the northern islands; near-neutral in the central islands; above normal tercile by 45% in the southern islands between 31^st May - 13^th June.   

   

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Near-normal precipitation tercile is probable in northern and central islands; while below-normal tercile is 40% probable in southern islands from June-July-August 2025 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of below-normal range.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 5, 6 and 7 respectively in the next two weeks (01 – 15 June 2025). MJO in phase 5, 6 and 7 usually suppress the rainfall over the Maldives.