Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – July 2025

         

HIGHLIGHTS

In July, the northern islands received the highest rainfall, up to 40 mm per day. The maximum temperature of 33°C was recorded in the central islands.  North-westerly winds prevailed over the northern and central islands, while westerly winds dominated in the southern islands. Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern Pacific Ocean are expected to remain near-neutral this summer.

Monitored: In June, the northern and southern islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall; while remaining islands received less. North-Westerly winds prevailed for the northern and central islands; while Westerly winds prevailed for the southern islands of the Maldives during the month of June.  

Predictions: ENSO-neutral is most likely through the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in August-October). Thereafter, chances of La Niña conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26, but remain comparable to ENSO-neutral.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology: Historical Average of Climate

In July, the entire country usually receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind direction in July is usually westerly but with low speeds wind speed. In August and September, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed do not change.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring from 12^th July to 26^th July:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
12th July	10 mm	TR	-
13th July	10 mm	TR	TR
14th July	10 mm	TR	-
15th July	TR	-	TR
16th July	TR	TR	-
17th July	10 mm	20 mm	TR
18th July	20 mm	20 mm	30 mm
19th July	10 mm	TR	TR
20th July	40 mm	30 mm	TR
21st July	40 mm	40 mm	TR
22nd July	20 mm	10 mm	TR
23rd July	30 mm	5 mm	-
24th July	30 mm	10 mm	-
25th July	10 mm	10 mm	10 mm
26th July	40 mm	10 mm	10 mm

TR - Trace Value

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In June, the northern and southern islands received up to 10 mm of rainfall, and the central islands received up to 5 mm rainfall.

Monthly Temperature Monitoring:

	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
T Max	32.00C	33.00C	32.00C
T Min	23.50C	23.80C	23.20C

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

11-20 June, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

                                                         Central Islands:  30 mm rainfall 

                                                         Southern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

21-30 June, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 50 mm rainfall 

                                                         Central Islands:  50 mm rainfall 

                                                         Southern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State July 18, 2025:

As of mid-July 2025, the equatorial Pacific remains in an ENSO-neutral state. The IRI ENSO plume forecast indicates a high probability (75%) of ENSO-neutral conditions for Jul-Sep 2025. These neutral conditions are expected to persist through the end of the forecast period. For later seasons (Oct-Dec and Nov-Jan), the probabilities for ENSO-neutral decrease slightly to 49% and 49%, respectively, but remain higher than those for either El Niño or La Niña. Looking ahead to the 2025/2026 period, ENSO-neutral once again becomes the dominant category, with gradually increasing probabilities. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on 24 - 30 June, 2025: 

0.5⁰C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
29th July	10 mm	20 mm	40 mm
30th July	10 mm	40 mm	40 mm
31st July	40 mm	20 mm	40 mm
01st August	10 mm	20 mm	20 mm
02nd August	10 mm	10 mm	10 mm
03rd August	20 mm	10 mm	10 mm
04th August	20 mm	20 mm	20 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of above-normal tercile by 40% in the central islands and by 50% in the southern islands; near-neutral in the northern islands between 2^nd - 15^th August.   

   

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Near-neutral tercile is probable in southern, central and northern islands of Maldives from August-September-October 2025 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of below-normal range. 

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 7,8,1,2 respectively in the next two weeks (27 July – 11 August 2025). MJO in phase 7, 8 will suppress the rainfall over the Maldives from 28^th July- 1^st August, MJO in phase 1 will neutral the rainfall over the Maldives from 2^nd- 6^th August, MJO in phase 2 will enhance the rainfall over the Maldives from 6^th- 10^th August.