Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – March 2022

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During February, the entire Maldives received less rainfall than 5mm.  Over the last 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 6.9% in the Northern islands; and was in deficit by 34% in the Central islands.

Predictions: A La Niña is in place for March and shall expect to continue in the months ahead. Seasonal climate predictions predict for April to June 2022 a neutral condition in the northern and central islands and a drought tendency in the southern islands.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of average rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is easterly and in northern islands, it’s south-easterly. Rainfall usually increases up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
12th – 14th Mar	-	-	-
15th Mar	-	10 mm	40 mm
16th Mar	-	-	10 mm
17th Mar	-	5 mm	-
18th Mar	-	-	-
19th Mar	-	40 mm	-
20th – 26th Mar	-	-	-

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In February, the entire Maldives received less rainfall than 5mm. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,

shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 100 mm from an average of 1450 mm average

     Central islands: Deficit of 500 mm from an average of 1725 mm average

     Southern islands: Equal to the average; 1775 mm average

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

  1-10  March, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 5 mm rainfall 
                                                                         Central Islands:  20 mm rainfall 
                                                                         Southern Islands: 5 mm rainfall 
 11-20 March, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 10 mm rainfall 
                                                                         Central Islands:  60 mm rainfall 
                                                                         Southern Islands: 40 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State March 18, 2022 :

In mid-March, SSTs remained below-average (strengthening slightly) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. The evolution of key oceanic and atmospheric variables is consistent with continued La Niña conditions, and therefore, a La Niña Advisory remains in place for March 2022. A large majority of the models in the plume predict SSTs to stay below-normal at the level of a weak La Niña until Apr-Jun, and then return to ENSO-neutral levels in May-Jul 2022.  The official CPC/IRI outlook also anticipates a continuation of the La Niña event with high probability during Apr-Jun. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on March 16, 2022: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA GFS model predicts up to Up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire islands on 29^th – 30^th Mar; Up to 10 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands; and neutral for southern islands on 31^st Mar; and up to 10 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; and neural for central and southern islands on 1^st – 4^th Apr.

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile in the central islands and near neutral northern and southern between 30^th Mar- 1^st Apr.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Below-normal precipitation tercile is 40% probable in the southern islands and near neutral for the northern and central islands from April-May-June 2022 and seasonal rainfall forecast is climatological.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phase 1 and shall weaken in the next two weeks (27 Mar - 10 Apr 2022). MJO in phase 1 usually suppresses rainfall over the Maldives.