Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – February 2022

  

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During January, the central and southern islands received above normal rainfall while the northern islands received less. Over the last 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 10% in the Northern islands; by 8% in the Southern islands and was in deficit by 28% in the Central islands.

Predictions: In the months ahead, a weak La Niña trend is expected. Seasonal climate predictions indicate a wetter tendency in the Northern and Central islands and a drought tendency in the Southern Islands for March to May. 

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:
In March, northern and central islands receive average rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. Usually in April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is westerly and in northern islands, it is northwesterly. Rainfall usually increase up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
6th Feb	-	-	-
7th Feb	5 mm	-	-
8th Feb	-	-	-
9th Feb	5 mm	-	-
10th Feb	10 mm	10 mm	-
11th Feb	10 mm	5 mm	-
12th Feb	20 mm	5 mm	-
13th Feb	5 mm	5 mm	-
14th Feb	10 mm	5 mm	-
15th – 20th Feb	-	-	-

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In January, the central and southern islands received up to 5 mm above average rainfall while remaining islands received less. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,

shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 150 mm from an average of 1450 mm average

     Central islands: Deficit of 475 mm from an average of 1675 mm average

     Southern islands: Excess of 150 mm from an average of 1775 mm average

Deckadal Rainfall Estimates:
  1-10  February, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 

                                                                  Central Islands:  10 mm rainfall 

                                                                  Southern Islands: 5 mm rainfall 

 11-20 February, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 

                                                                 Central Islands:  10 mm rainfall 

                                                                 Southern Islands: 5 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State February 18, 2022 :

In mid-February, SSTs remained below-average in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. The evolution of key oceanic and atmospheric variables is consistent with weak La Niña conditions, and therefore, a La Niña Advisory remains in place for Feb 2022. A large majority of the models in the plume predict SSTs to stay below-normal at the level of a weak La Niña until Mar-May, and then return to ENSO-neutral levels in Apr-Jun 2022.The official CPC/IRI outlook also anticipates a continuation of the weak La Niña event with high probability during Mar-May. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on February 16, 2022: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA GFS model predicts up to Up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire islands on 23^rd – 24^th Feb; Up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; up to 10 mm in central and southern islands on 25^th Feb; Up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire islands on 26^th Feb; Up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands; up to 10 mm in southern islands on 27^th Feb; Up to 20 mm of rainfall in the southern islands; up to 10 mm in northern and central islands on 28^th Feb; and Up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central  islands; up to 20 mm in northern and southern islands on 1^st Mar.

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 40% in the central islands and near neutral northern and southern between 1^st - 7^thMarch.  

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal precipitation tercile is 50% probable in the northern and central islands; and below-normal precipitation tercile is 40% probable in the southern islands from March-April-May 2022 and seasonal rainfall forecast is climatological.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 3 & 4 in the next two weeks over the Maldives and it is strong in the next two weeks (21^st Feb - 7^th Mar 2022). MJO in phase 3 & 4 usually enhances rainfall over the Maldives.