Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – December 2021

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During November, the entire Maldives received above-normal rainfall. Over the last 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 20% in the Northern islands; by 7% in the Central islands, and was in deficit by 19% in the Central islands.

Predictions: In the months ahead, a weak La Nia trend is expected. Seasonal climate prediction for wetter tendency in the islands other than in the Southern-most island for January to March. 

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In January, northern islands receive up to 50 mm of rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm and 250 mm of rain respectively. Wind is north easterly. Usually, in February, northern islands receive rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm of rain. The wind is north easterly. In March, northern and central islands receive rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is north easterly.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
12th Dec	30 mm	30 mm	20 mm
13th Dec	40 mm	30 mm	-
14th Dec	20 mm	20 mm	5 mm
15th Dec	30 mm	-	-
16th Dec	10 mm	10 mm	-
17th Dec	-	20 mm	5 mm
18th Dec	-	40 mm	10 mm
19th Dec	-	10 mm	10 mm
20th Dec	-	40 mm	10 mm
21st Dec	-	40 mm	60 mm
22nd Dec	-	20 mm	60 mm
23rd Dec	-	30 mm	-
24th Dec	-	5 mm	-
25th Dec	-	-	30 mm
26th Dec	-	-	5 mm

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring:

In November, the entire Maldives received up to 10 mm above-average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days

shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 300 mm from an average of 1475 mm average
                 Central islands: Deficit of 325 mm from an average of 1725 mm average
                 Southern islands: Excess of 125 mm from an average of 1800 mm average

Deckadal Rainfall Estimates:
  1-10  December, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 

                                                                   Central Islands:  50 mm rainfall 

                                                                   Southern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

 11-20 Deceember, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 70 mm rainfall 

                                                                    Central Islands:  100 mm rainfall 

                                                                    Southern Islands: 50 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State December 20, 2021 :

In mid-December, SSTs remained well below normal in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. The evolution of key oceanic and atmospheric variables is consistent with weak La Niña conditions, and therefore, a La Niña Advisory remained in place for Dec 2021. The official CPC/IRI outlook also anticipates a continuation of the weak La Niña event with high probability during Dec-Feb, persisting until Feb-Apr, dissipating in Mar-May and return to ENSO-neutral conditions with high probabilities for rest of the forecast period (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on December 22, 2021: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA GFS model predicts up to 20 mm of rainfall in the southern Islands; and up to 10 mm in northern and central islands on 29^th Dec; Up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central islands; up to 20 mm of rainfall in the southern islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands on 30^th Dec; Up to 20 mm of rainfall in the southern islands; and up to 10 mm in northern and central islands on 31^st Dec; Up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central and southern islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands on 1^st Jan; Up to 70 mm of rainfall in the southern islands; up to 20 mm of rainfall in central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands on 2^nd Jan; Up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands on 3^rd Jan; and up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central islands; up to 20 mm in northern islands: and up to 10 mm in southern islands on 4^thJan.

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of above-normal tercile by 60% in the southern islands; and below-normal tercile by 50% in the northern and central islands between 25^th – 31^th December.  

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal precipitation tercile is 45% probable in the northern islands; and near-normal precipitation, tercile is probable in central and southern islands from January-February-March 2022 and seasonal rainfall forecast is climatological.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 7 & 8 and it is strong in the next two weeks (27^thDec 2021- 10^th Jan 2022). MJO in phase 7 usually suppresses rainfall over the Maldives.