Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – November 2021

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During November, the entire Maldives received above-normal rainfall. Over the last 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 18% in the Northern islands; and was in deficit by 26% in the Central islands.

Predictions: La Niña tendency is predicted in the months ahead, and this results in a dry tendency in the entire Maldives for December to February 2022. 

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Northern islands get north-easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind. Usually, in January northern islands receive up to 50 mm rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm, and 250 mm rain respectively. The wind is northeasterly. In February, northern islands receive rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm rain. The wind is northeasterly.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
16th Nov	20 mm	20 mm	-
17th Nov	10 mm	-	-
18th Nov	10 mm	5 mm	-
19th Nov	-	-	10 mm
20th Nov	-	10 mm	40 mm
21st Nov	-	20 mm	50 mm
22nd Nov	-	5 mm	30 mm
23rd Nov	10 mm	-	10 mm
24th Nov	20 mm	5 mm	-
25th Nov	10 mm	5 mm	-
26th Nov	20 mm	-	-
27th Nov	10 mm	10 mm	-
28th Nov	30 mm	30 mm	-
30th Nov	10 mm	-	10 mm

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring:

In November, the entire Maldives received up to 10 mm above-average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,

shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 275 mm from an average of 1500 mm average

     Central islands: Deficit of 450 mm from an average of 1725 mm average

     Southern islands: Equal to the average; 1850 mm average

Deckadal Rainfall Estimates:
  11-20  November, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 60 mm rainfall 

                                                                    Central Islands:  20 mm rainfall 

                                                                    Southern Islands: 60 mm rainfall 

 21-30 November, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

                                                                   Central Islands:  60 mm rainfall 

                                                                   Southern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State November 24, 2021 :

In mid-November, SSTs remained well below normal in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. The evolution of key oceanic and atmospheric variables is consistent with La Niña conditions, and therefore, a La Niña Advisory remained in place for Nov 2021. The official CPC/IRI outlook also anticipates a continuation of the La Niña event with high probability during Nov-Jan, persisting until Feb-Apr, with a return to ENSO-neutral conditions with high probabilities for rest of the forecast period (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on November 24, 2021: 

SST was observed near-neutral around the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA GFS model predicts up to 70 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands; and up to 20 mm in southern islands on 11^th Dec; Up to 70 mm of rainfall in the central islands; up to 40 mm of rainfall in the southern islands and up to 20 mm in northern islands on 12^th Dec; Up to 70 mm of rainfall in the central islands; and up to 40 mm in northern and southern islands on 13^th Dec; Up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands; and up to 20 mm in southern islands on 14^th Dec; Up to 130 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; up to 20 mm of rainfall in the central islands and up to 10 mm in southern islands on 15^th Dec; Up to 70 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands; and up to 10 mm in southern islands on 16^th Dec; and up to 20 mm of rainfall in the central islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands on 17^thDec.

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of above-normal tercile by 70% in the northern and central islands, and by 50 % in the Southern islands between 11^th – 17^th December.  

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal precipitation tercile is 50% probable in the central and southern islands; And near normal precipitation tercile is probable in the northern islands from December-January-February 2021 and seasonal rainfall forecast is climatological.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 6 & 7 and it is strong in the next two weeks (13^th- 27^th December). MJO in phase 6 usually suppresses rainfall over the Maldives.