Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – August 2021

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During July, the southern islands received above normal rainfall while the central and northern islands received less. Over the 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 10% in the Northern islands; 20% in the Southern islands and deficit by 15% in the Central islands.

Predictions: With ENSO-neutral conditions established; dry conditions are set to prevail across Maldives from September-November 2021. The seasonal temperature remains climatological.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In September, islands in the northern half of the country receive up to 150 mm rainfall while the southern half receives up to 200 mm rainfall. The same rainfall pattern continues in October and in November the entire country usually receives up to 150 mm rainfall. The wind pattern is usually westerly during these three months.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
8th Aug	20 mm	10 mm	-
9th Aug	40 mm	-	-
10th Aug	20 mm	-	40 mm
11th Aug	60 mm	30 mm	5 mm
12th Aug	60 mm	5 mm	10 mm
13th Aug	10 mm	-	-
14th Aug	-	10 mm	5 mm
15th Aug	-	-	-
16th Aug	10 mm	-	-
17th Aug	40 mm	-	-
18th Aug	10 mm	-	-
19th Aug	-	5 mm	-
20th - 22nd Aug	-	-	-

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring:

In July, Southern islands received up to 15 mm above average rainfall while remaining islands received less.The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,

shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 150 mm from an average of 1500 mm average
                 Central islands: Deficit of 350 mm from an average of 1750 mm average
                 Southern islands: Excess of 275 mm from an average of 1800 mm average

Deckadal Rainfall Estimates:

  1-10 August, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

                                                            Central Islands:  80 mm rainfall 

                                                            Southern Islands:  100 mm rainfall 

 11-20 August, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 60 mm rainfall 

                                                             Central Islands:  40 mm rainfall 

                                                             Southern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State August 18, 2021 :

In mid-Aug 2021, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, although SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña while the atmosphere continues to maintain largely ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere summer 2021. The official CPC/IRI outlook likely persist ENSO-neutral condition through the summer.  (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on August 18, 2021: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA GFS model predicts up to 70 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; up to 40 mm in central islands; and up to 10 mm in southern islands on 25^th-26^th Aug; Up to 70 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands; and up to 20 mm in southern islands on 27^thAug; Up to 70 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; and up to 20 mm in central and southern islands on 28^thAug; Up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central islands; and up to 20 mm in northern and southern islands on 29^thAug; Up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands; and up to 20 mm in southern islands on 30^thAug; and up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands on 31^stAug.

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of neutral tercile in the entire islands between 25^th- 27^th August.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Below-normal temperature tercile is 60% probable in the central islands; 50% probable in the northern islands; and normal temperature tercile is probable in the southern islands from September-October-November 2021 and seasonal rainfall forecast is climatological.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 1 & 2 and it remains weak in the next two weeks (25 August – 6 September 2021). MJO shall enhance the rainfall over the Maldives during this period.