Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – July 2021

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During July, the entire Maldives islands received less rainfall from climatology. Over the 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 29% in the Northern islands; 11% in the southern islands and deficit by 9% in the Central islands.

Predictions: With ENSO-neutral conditions established; wet conditions are set to prevail across Maldives from August - October 2021. The seasonal temperature remains climatological.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In July, the entire country usually receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind direction in July is usually westerly but with low speeds wind speed. In August and September, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed do not change.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
11th - 12th July	-	5 mm	5 mm
13th July	-	-	10 mm
14th July	-	-	-
15th July	-	-	10 mm
16th July	-	-	40 mm
17th- 19th July	-	-	-
20th - 21st July	-	-	5 mm
22nd July	-	10 mm	30 mm
23rd July	10 mm	40 mm	60 mm
24th July	-	20 mm	20 mm
25th July	60 mm	30 mm	10 mm

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring:

In June, entire islands received up to 5 mm above average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,

shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 450 mm from an average of 1525 mm average

     Central islands: Deficit of 150 mm from an average of 1700 mm average

     Southern islands: Excess of 200 mm from an average of 1800 mm average

Deckadal Rainfall Estimates:

  1-10 July, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 100 mm rainfall 

                                                        Central Islands:  100 mm rainfall 

                                                        Southern Islands:  80 mm rainfall 

 11-20 July, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 5 mm rainfall 

                                                        Central Islands:  10 mm rainfall 

                                                        Southern Islands: 40 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State July 27, 2021 :
In late-July 2021, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, although SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña while the atmosphere continues to maintain largely ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere summer 2021. The official CPC/IRI outlook likely persist ENSO-neutral condition through the summer.(Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on July 27, 2021: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands; and up to 20 mm in southern islands on 28^th July; Up to 70 mm of rainfall in the southern islands; and up to 20 mm in northern and central islands on 29^th July; Up to 70 mm of rainfall in the southern islands; up to 20 mm in central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands on 30^th July; Up to 20 mm of rainfall in the central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands on 31^st  July; Up to 20 mm of rainfall in the entire islands on 1^st August; Up to 40 mm of rainfall in the southern islands; and up to 20 mm in northern and central islands on 2^nd August; and Up to 20 mm of rainfall in the central and southern islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands on 3^rd August.

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of above-normal tercile by 70% in the entire islands between 24^th- 30^th July.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal temperature tercile is 50% probable in the northern islands; and 40% probable in central and southern islands from August-September-October 2021 and seasonal rainfall forecast is climatological.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 6 & 7 and it shows fairly weak in the next two weeks (28 July – 9 August 2021). MJO shall weaken the rainfall over the Maldives during this period.