Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – November 2019

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During November, the whole country received rainfall slightly above than is normal for the season. During last year the Southern and Northern Islands have an excess of 450 mm and 200 mm of rainfall respectively compared to the average. The Central Islands are experiencing average rainfall. The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 1 ⁰C above normal. This is extremely warm. 

Predictions: IMD GFS the model predicts up to 20 mm of daily rainfall in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands on December 4^th and 5^th. On the 6^th and 7^th, daily rainfall up to 70 mm is expected in the northern and central islands; and up to 10 mm in southern islands.  Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 100 mm for the northern and central parts next week.  

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Northern islands get north-easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind. Usually, in January northern islands receive up to 50 mm rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm, and 250 mm rain respectively. The wind is northeasterly. In February, northern islands receive rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm rain. The wind is northeasterly.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
16th November	Up to 30 mm in the southern and central islands and up to 10 mm in the northern islands.
17th – 18th November	No Rainfall.
19th November	Up to 20 mm in the central islands.
20th   November	Up to 50 mm in the southern and central islands; up to 10 mm in the northern islands.
21st November	Up to 5 mm in the southern islands.
22nd November	Up to 20 mm in the northern islands.
23rd November	Up to 10 mm in the northern islands.
24th November	Up to 70 mm in the northern islands; and up to 30 mm in the central islands.
25th November	Up to 30 mm in the central islands.
26th November	Up to 50 mm in the entire country.
27th November	Up to 20 mm in the central and southern islands and up to 15 mm in the northern islands.
28th November	Up to 50 mm in the central; up to 30 mm in southern; and up to 10 mm in the northern islands.
29th – 30th November	Up to 50 mm in the entire country.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In November, the whole country received up to 75 mm of rainfall above than normal for the season. The entire country received up to 450 mm of total rainfall.

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State November 19, 2019:

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near thresholds of weak El Niño levels during October and early November. However, patterns in most atmospheric variables generally maintained neutral conditions. The oceanic warming is attributed to intraseasonal variability and the overall diagnosis indicate ENSO-neutral conditions

Indian Ocean Monitoring on November 23, 2019: 

1 ⁰C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 7 from Nov 11-13; and in Phase 8 from Nov 14-30 Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS daily rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands on December 4^th and 5^th. On the 6^th and 7^th, daily rainfall up to 70 mm is expected in the northern and central islands; and up to 10 mm in southern islands. On the 8^th, rainfall up to 70 mm of is expected in the northern islands; up to 40 mm in central island; and up to 10 mm in the southern islands. On the 9^th, rainfall up to 40 mm of is expected in the central islands and up to 20 mm in the northern and southern islands.