Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – October 2019

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During October, the whole country received rainfall above than is normal for the season. The Southern and Northern Islands have an excess of 650 mm and 150 mm of rainfall during last year compared to the average respectively while the Central Islands experiencing average rainfall. The sea surface temperature around Maldives was 1 ⁰C above normal. This is extremely warm. 

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of daily rainfall in the central and southern islands on November 4^th and 5^th. On the 6^th, rainfall up to 10 mm is expected in the entire country. On the 7^th, rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the northern and central islands and up to 10 mmz in the southern islands.   Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 75 mm for the northern and central parts next week.  

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In November, the whole country usually receives up to 200 mm rain. The wind is westerly. Usually in December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Northern islands get north-easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind. In January northern islands receive up to 50 mm rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. The wind is northeasterly.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
18th October	Up to 30 mm in the northern and central islands.
19th October	Up to 30 mm in the southern islands.
20th October	Up to 30 mm in the northern islands; up to 20 mm in central islands; and up to 10 mm in the southern islands.
21st - 22nd   October	Up to 5 mm in the  northern islands.
23rd October	Up to 30 mm in the northern islands.
24th October	Up to 50 mm in the southern islands; and up to 10 mm in the northern islands.
25th October	Up to 20 mm in the central and southern islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands.
26th October	Up to 50 mm in the central islands; and up to 30 mm in the southern islands.
27th October	No Rainfall.
28th October	Up to 10 mm in the northern and central islands.
29th October	Up to 100 mm in the northern and up to 30 mm in central and southern islands.
30th October	Up to 100 mm in the central and up to 50 mm in northern and southern islands.
31st October	Up to 20 mm in the southern and up to 10 mm in northern and central islands.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In October, Central islands received up to 200 mm rainfall above than normal rainfall for the season; Northern islands up to 150 mm; and Southern islands up to 50 mm. Northern islands received up to 600 mm of total rainfall; and Central and Southern islands up to 450 mm. 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State October 18, 2019:

SSTs in the east-central Pacific maintained ENSO-neutral levels during September and early October, despite some warming in October. Patterns in some atmospheric variables show weak El Niño conditions, but this is attributed to intraseasonal variability and the collective assessment is for ENSO-neutral conditions. Model forecasts generally favor ENSO-neutral through autumn, winter and spring, with slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña. 

Indian Ocean Monitoring on October 23, 2019: 

1 ⁰C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 1 from Oct 14-17; and in Phase 2 from Oct 18-23. Usually, rainfall in the Maldives is augmented in Phase 2

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS daily rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the central and southern islands on November 4^th and 5^th. On the 6^th, rainfall up to 10 mm is expected in the entire country. On the 7^th, rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the northern and central islands and up to 10 mm in the southern islands. On the 8^th and 9^th, daily rainfall up to 40 mm of is expected in the northern and central islands and up to 10 mm in the southern islands.