Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – June 2019

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During July, southern parts of the country received rainfall below than is normal for the season by more than 50 mm; and central and southern islands received normal rainfall. The northern islands recorded the second-highest rainfall for the period in the past six years. The Southern Islands have an excess of 500 mm of rainfall during last year compared to the average while the Northern Islands are having a deficit of 400 mm and Central islands a deficit of 100 mm. The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 1 ⁰C above normal. This is extremely warm.

Predictions:  IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire country on July 9th. On the 10th, rainfall up to 20 mm is expected in the whole country. On the 11th, rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the central and southern islands. On the 12th, rainfall up to 40 mm is expected in the southern islands and up to 20 mm in the central islands  Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 25 mm for the entire country next week.

 Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In July, the entire country usually receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind direction in July is usually westerly but with low speeds wind speed. In August and September, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed do not change.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
22nd June	Up to 10 mm in the southern islands and up to 5 mm in the northern islands.
23rd June	Up to 5 mm in the southern islands.
24th June	Up to 15 mm in the southern islands.
25th   June	Up to 10 mm in the southern islands.
26th - 27th June	Up to 5 mm in the central islands and southern islands.
28th June	Up to 30 mm in the central islands and the southern islands.
29th June	Up to 30 mm in the central islands and up to 20 mm in the southern islands.
30th June – 1st July	No Rainfall.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In June, northern and central islands received slightly below than normal rainfall for the season; and southern islands received up to 50 mm rainfall above than normal. The entire country received up to 450 mm of total rainfall. 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State July 19, 2019:

SSTs in the tropical Pacific maintained a weak El Niño level during May and early June and temperature anomalies of subsurface waters were slightly above average. Some patterns in the atmosphere show intermittent El Niño conditions. Collective model forecasts show a continuation of at least weak El Niño-level SSTs lasting through 2019.

Indian Ocean Monitoring May 29, 2019: 

2 ⁰C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 2 from Jun 1-3; in Phase 3 from Jun 4-6; and in again in Phase 2 from Jun 7-81. Usually, rainfall in the Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS rainfall up to 10 mm is expected in the entire country on July 9^th. On the 10^th, rainfall up to 20 mm is expected in the whole country. On the 11^th, rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the central and southern islands. On the 12^th, rainfall up to 40 mm is expected in the southern islands and up to 20 mm in the central islands. On the 13^th, 14^th and 15^th daily rainfall up to 20 mm is expected in the southern islands and up to 10 mm in central islands.