Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – July 2019

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During July, southern parts of the country received rainfall below than is normal for the season by more than 50 mm; and central and southern islands received normal rainfall. The northern islands recorded the second-highest rainfall for the period in the past six years. The Southern Islands have an excess of 500 mm of rainfall during last year compared to the average while the Northern Islands are having a deficit of 400 mm and Central islands a deficit of 100 mm. The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 1 ⁰C above normal. This is extremely warm.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts up to 10 mm of daily rainfall in the entire country during August 4^th - 6^th. On the 7^th and 8^th, rainfall up to 20 mm is expected in the northern islands and up to 10 mm in the rest of the country.  Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 25 mm for the entire country next week.

Weekly Rainfall Forecast by IMD GFS daily

 Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In July, the entire country usually receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind direction in July is usually westerly but with low speeds wind speed. In August and September, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed do not change.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
18th July	Up to 50 mm in the northern islands; up to 30 mm in the central; and up to 20 mm in the southern islands.
19th July	Up to 30 mm in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in the central and southern islands.
20th – 21st July	No Rainfall.
22nd   July	Up to 5 mm in the central islands.
23rd July	No Rainfall.
24th July	Up to 5 mm in the northern islands.
25th July	Up to 20 mm in the northern islands.
26th July – 1st August	No Rainfall.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In July, northern and central islands received normal rainfall for the season; and southern islands received up to 50 mm rainfall below than normal.

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State July 19, 2019:

SSTs in the east-central Pacific declined to ENSO-neutral levels during early July, but still above average. Temperature anomalies of subsurface waters were near-average. Patterns in the atmosphere showed mainly ENSO-neutral to borderline El Niño conditions. Collective model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral through autumn, possibly returning to weak El Niño by winter.

Indian Ocean Monitoring May 29, 2019: 

1 ⁰C above average SST was observed around the Maldives

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 1 from Jul 1-13 and in again  Phase 1 from Jul 16-21, and in Phase 2 on Jul 22. Usually, rainfall in the Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS daily rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the entire country during August 4^th - 6^th. On the 7^th and 8^th, rainfall up to 20 mm is expected in the northern islands and up to 10 mm in the rest of the country. On the 9^th, rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the whole country. On the 10^th, rainfall up to 40 mm is expected in the southern islands and up to 20 mm in the rest of the country