Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – April 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

After a relatively dry January, February and March some rainfall was observed in the first two weeks of April. This is the highest observed rainfall this year in the entire country. This rainfall coincided with the atmospheric phenomenon known as Madden Julian Oscillation being strong and in phase 3 (and over the Indian Ocean) which is usually associated with higher rainfall over Maldives. But as the MJO transited to phase 5 over the Pacific in the previous week (11 th onwards) was once again dry. The NOAA CFS long range weather prediction models predict dry conditions in the next week as well. Usually in April relatively high rainfall can be observed (about 200 mm- 400 mm monthly). Moderate El Nino conditions have set in and as is typical there is warmer than usual seas around the Maldives. The rainfall in a typical El Nino episode over Maldives is lower than usual in Northern and Central Maldives until mid-September.


Below average rainfall observed in the entire country in March 2015

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

After a relatively dry January, February and March some rainfall was observed in the first two weeks of April. This is the highest observed rainfall this year in the entire country. This rainfall coincided with the atmospheric phenomenon known as Madden Julian Oscillation being strong and in phase 3 (and over the Indian Ocean) which is usually associated with higher rainfall over Maldives. But as the MJO transited to phase 5 over the Pacific in the previous week (11 th onwards) was once again dry. The NOAA CFS long range weather prediction models predict dry conditions in the next week as well. Usually in April relatively high rainfall can be observed (about 200 mm- 400 mm monthly). Moderate El Nino conditions have set in and as is typical there is warmer than usual seas around the Maldives. The rainfall in a typical El Nino episode over Maldives is lower than usual in Northern and Central Maldives until mid-September.


Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Between 11 th and 18 th of April it did not rain across the Maldives.


Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

Less than average rainfall was observed throughout Maldives in March 2015 with less than 100 mm total monthly rainfall observed in most parts of the country. But higher rainfall compared to previous months was observed in the first two weeks of April in th e entire country. This observed rainfall in the first two weeks is the highest observed rainfall this year.


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State April 16, 2015:

During March through early-April 2015 the SST met the threshold for weak Niño conditions. Most of the atmospheric variables now indicate an El Niño pattern, including weakened trade winds, low Southern Oscillation Index and excess rainfall in the vicinity of the dateline. The consensus of ENSO prediction models indicate weak El Niño conditions during the AprilJune 2015 season in progress, likely strengthening during summer and lasting through 2015

Indian Ocean Monitoring April 18, 2015: 

NWarmer than usual Sea surface temperature was observed particularly around Southern half of Maldives




Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

A According to NOAA models, significant amount of rainfall is not expected during 19 th - 24 th April 2015.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for May to July, the total 3 month precipitation shall be climatological. The 3 month average temperature has a 50-60% likelihood for northern islands and about 60% likelihood for southern-most islands of being in the above-normal tercile during this period.



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