Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – March 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

Below average rainfall was observed in January 2015 in Maldives and a continuation of this dry condition was observed in February and early March 2015 as well. Significant amount of rainfall is not predicted in the next few days by NOAA/ CFS models. The rainfall deficit in Maldives has increased to about 22- 33% of what is typical during the past 365 days. IRI predicts an El Nino by mid-2015.

Southern islands continue to receive below average rainfall

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---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

Usually in March, northern islands receive around 50 mm rainfall and this increases up to 150 mm in southern islands. In April rainfall usually increases throughout the country with northern islands receiving rainfall up to 100 mm and southern islands receiving rainfall up to 200 mm. The average precipitation in May normally increases further throughout the country. Wind direction is usually southwesterly in March and in April northern islands receive south-easterly wind while southern islands receive easterly wind. Strong easterly wind is usually observed in May.

Climatology

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Between 14 th - 20 th March, rainfall was only observed on 14 th and 16 th . During these two days the entire country received rainfall with central islands receiving rainfall up to 30 mm and the others receiving rainfall up to 20 mm. Even the sea around Maldives did not receive a significant amount of precipitation during this week.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

Rainfall received during February 2015 was climatological in northern and central islands while it was below average in southern islands. Due to this the rainfall deficit has become about 33% in northern and central islands and about 22% in southern islands.

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State February 19, 2015:

During February through mid-March 2015 the SST just met the thresholds for weak Niño conditions. During the last month, some of the atmospheric variables began indicating an El Niño pattern more than they had been earlier, including trade wind weakening and excess rainfall migrating farther to the east. The consensus of ENSO prediction models indicate weak El Niño conditions during the March-May 2015 season in progress, continuing and strengthening El Niño toward mid-2015.

Indian Ocean Monitoring March 14, 2015: 

Neutral Sea surface temperature was observed around Maldives.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to NOAA models, significant amount of rainfall is not expected during 22 nd - 27 th March 2015.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for March to May, the total 3 month precipitation shall climatological. The 3 month average temperature has a 50-60% likelihood for central islands and about 60% likelihood for southern-most islands of being in the above-normal tercile during this period.