Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – February 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

A continuation of dry weather conditions from the previous month was observed throughout January in the Northern and Central Maldives. The Southern Islands got a significant amount of rainfall on the 12 -14 th of January. The seas to the Southern islands showed a warming which was 0.5C above what is usual. Significant amounts of rainfall are not expected during the next few days as well. On a seasonal time scale, the next three months are expected to bring the usual distribution of rainfall totals although the Southern islands in particular and Central Islands as well shall tend towards warmer temperatures than usual.

Very dry conditions were observed in and around Maldives during January 2015

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

Usually in February, northern islands receive around 50 mm rainfall and this increases up to 150 mm in southern islands. The same rainfall pattern is expected in March as well. In April rainfall usually increases throughout the country with northern islands receiving rainfall up to 100 mm and southern islands receiving rainfall up to 200 mm. Wind direction is usually south-westerly in February and March and in April northern islands receive south-easterly wind while southern islands receive easterly wind.

Climatology

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Rainfall up to 30 mm was observed in southern islands during 12 th - 14 th February 2015. Thereafter until the 18th no rainfall was observed in Maldives. But during this seven day period very heavy rainfall was observed in the sea south of the country.

 Weekly Monitoring

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

During January 2015 very less rainfall (below average) was observed in Maldives.

 Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State February 19, 2015:

During December 2014 through early January 2015 the SST exceeded thresholds for weak Niño conditions, although the anomaly level has weakened recently. Meanwhile, only some of the atmospheric variables indicate an El Niño pattern. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate weak El Niño conditions during the January-March season in progress, continuing through most or all of northern spring 2015.

Indian Ocean Monitoring February 14, 2015: 

Neutral Sea surface temperature was observed around Northern and Central Maldives and anomalous warm seas close to the Southern Islands.

 Ocean State Monitoring

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to NOAA models, significant amount of rainfall is not expected during 19 th - 24 th February 2015.


 Weekly Rainfall Forecast

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for March to May, the total 3 month precipitation shall climatological. The 3 month average temperature has a 60-70% likelihood for central islands and about 90% likelihood for southern -most islands of being in the above-normal tercile during this period.

 Seasonal Prediction