Monday, November 18, 2013

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – November 2013

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Highlights

The Central Maldivian islands continue to show a rainfall deficit. The seas around Maldives are warmer than usual, and warm than usual air temperatures are also likely for the three months ahead.  





Image: Sea Surface Temperature- 06 Nov 2013









Summary

CLIMATOLOGY


Monthly Climatology: 

The historical average rainfall for the Southern islands is high in November and December and the average declines as it moves North. The winds over the Northern & Central islands are usually north-easterly (from north-East to south-West). For Southern islands higher wind speeds are expected for July and August, but stronger westerly winds in September and October.



MONITORING


Weekly Monitoring: 

During 3rd to 5th November Northern and Central islands received high rainfall and Southern islands received relatively less rainfall. The next day entire Maldives received up to 30 mm rainfall. On 7th and 8th light rainfall was observed in Southern and Central islands.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

Rainfall received in Northern islands is gradually decreasing, but the deficit of the rainfall, compared to the previous 8 years’ average, is low. In central islands the deficit of rainfall continues to increase while in Southern islands a small surplus rainfall is observed as usual.


PREDICTIONS

Weekly Rainfall Forecast: 

Heavy rainfall events are not expected during 9th – 14th of November.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction: 

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for October to December 2013 rainfall shall remain climatological while temperature this season shall be 40- 50% above normal.

Pacific Seas State October 17, 2013



Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continuation of neutral ENSO through the remainder of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014. A long lasting mean disagreement between statistical and dynamic models (statistical leaning cooler, dynamic warmer) has diminished. The average forecast of all models indicates a gradual warming tendency during the first half of 2014.


(Text Courtesy IRI)



Indian Ocean State November 11, 2013

Seas around Maldives show a positive SST anomaly of 0.5 - 1⁰ C.




Inside this Issue


1.       Monthly Climatology
2.       Rainfall Monitoring
a.       Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
b.      Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
c.       Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
d.      Weekly Average SST Anomalies
3.       Rainfall Predictions
a.       Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
b.      Seasonal Predictions from IRI






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