Friday, October 4, 2013

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – October 2013

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Highlights

Rainfall deficit has abated in the Southern Islands, but persists weakly in the Northern Islands and significantly in the Central Islands. Warmer temperatures prevail in the equatorial Indian Ocean sea surface.  







Image: Rainfall Deficit in Southern Maldives









Summary

CLIMATOLOGY


Monthly Climatology: 

The climatology refers to the average conditions experienced historically for a given month. Usually the climatology is a good guide to what one may expect in a given month absent other information.  The historical average rainfall for the Northern islands is high in July (200-250 mm), higher in August (250- 300 mm) and drops in September & October (100- 200 mm).  In the Central islands rainfall is usually moderate (150- 200 mm) during the August – October period. Heavy rainfall is typical for the Southern islands during these four months. The winds over the Northern & Central islands are usually westerly (from West to East) and wind speeds are expected to be high. For Southern islands, low wind speeds are expected for July and August but stronger westerly winds in September and October.



MONITORING


Weekly Monitoring: 

During 23rd -28th September only Southern-most islands received very less amount of rainfall.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

The negative rainfall anomalies observed throughout the country has decreased except in central islands where it continues to grow. In Southern Maldives a peak in the observed rainfall was observed in late August to early September period. This was the second highest peak in the rainfall observed in this year in this region.

Sea Surface Temperatures and ENSO state: 

The ENSO state continues to be neutral with a few models predicting a La Nina tendency. The sea surfaces around Maldives shows neutral conditions except that there is a warm anomaly in equatorial Indian Ocean near. The Pacific Ocean surfaces show a tendency neutral.

PREDICTIONS

Weekly Rainfall Forecast: 

Heavy rainfall events are not expected during 30th Sep -5th of October.




Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction: 

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for October to December 2013 rainfall shall remain climatological while temperature this season shall be 40- 50% above normal.



Pacific Seas State July 18, 2013



During June through early-July the observed ENSO conditions remained neutral. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continuation of neutral ENSO through the remainder of 2013 and the first quarter of 2014. However, a few(mainly statistical) models, call for cooling towards borderline or weak La Niña conditions for Northern autumn into winter while a few others, mainly dynamical, forecast developing El Nino conditions during this same time frame.


(Text Courtesy IRI)



Indian Ocean State July 31, 2013

Seas towards the southern side of Maldives show a positive SST anomaly up to 0.5⁰ C.




Inside this Issue


1.       Monthly Climatology
2.       Rainfall Monitoring
a.       Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
b.      Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
c.       Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
d.      Weekly Average SST Anomalies
3.       Rainfall Predictions
a.       Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
b.      Seasonal Predictions from IRI






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