Wednesday, December 31, 2025

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – December 2025

              

HIGHLIGHTS

During 2 – 7 January, the southern regions are expected receive moderate rainfall (20-40 mm), while the other regions are expected to receive less. On 8 January, rainfall over the northern and central regions is expected to intensify significantly, with daily totals reaching up to 130 mm. During 16 – 30 December, the highest daily rainfall was in the southern regions on 19 December with a peak of 100 mm.  Sea surface temperature (SST) around the Maldives and the Arabian Sea remain normal. As of mid-December, Pacific Ocean is in a La Niña state. Winds are mainly coming from the northwest across the country. 

Monitored: In December, the central and southern islands received up to 12 mm of rainfall and the remaining islands received less. North-Westerly winds prevailed for the Maldives during the month of November. 

Predictions:  La Niña is favored to continue for the next month or two, with a transition to ENSO neutral most likely in January-march 2026 (68% chance).


Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI