Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – October 2025

            

HIGHLIGHTS

During 4^th-10^th November, rainfall is expected to decrease in the northern and central islands, while the southern islands are likely to continue receiving heavy rainfall, with daily totals reaching up to 70 mm. During the last two weeks of October, Maldives experienced heavy rainfall, with daily rainfall of northern and central islands reaching up to 50 mm. Sea surface temperature (SST) around Maldives remain warmer than usual. Winds are mainly coming from the northwest and west across the country. 

Monitored: In October, the northern, central and southern islands received up to 15 mm of rainfall. North-Westerly winds prevailed for the Northern and Central islands while Westerly winds prevailed for the Southern islands of Maldives during the month of August. 

Predictions: La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025 - February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026 (55% chance).

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI