Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – January 2023

  

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During December, the central islands received up to 10 mm above average rainfall while remaining islands received less. The average rainfall exceeded climatology in the central and southern islands by 26%; and was normal in the northern islands.

Predictions: A transition from the level of a La Niña to ENSO-neutral state is expected in the months ahead. Seasonal climate predictions predict a climatological average from February to April 2023 for the Maldives.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In February, northern islands receive average rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm of rain.  Usually in March, northern and central islands receive rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. In April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is westerly and in northern islands, it’s northwesterly.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
23rd Jan	60 mm	30 mm	40 mm
24th Jan	30 mm	60 mm	10 mm
25th Jan	60 mm	TR	-
26th Jan	TR	TR	-
27th Jan	TR	10 mm	-
28th Jan	5 mm	TR	5 mm
29th Jan	TR	10 mm	TR
30th Jan	-	10 mm	TR
31st Jan	-	-	TR
1st Feb	-	-	-
2nd Feb	-	-	-
3rd Feb	10 mm	-	-
4th Feb	TR	-	TR
5th Feb	TR	-	-
6th Feb	TR	TR	-

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: In December, the central islands received up to 10 mm, while remaining islands received less. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,

shows for: Northern islands: Equal to the average of 1600 mm

     Central islands: Excess of 325 mm from an average of 1250 mm average

     Southern islands: Excess of 325 mm from an average of 1250 mm average

 

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

             11-20  Jan, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 5 mm rainfall 

                                                                     Central Islands: 10 mm rainfall 
                                                                     Southern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 

21-31 Jan, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 80 mm rainfall 

                                                                    Central Islands: 80 mm rainfall 
                                                                    Southern Islands: 40 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State January 19, 2023:

In mid-January 2023, SST in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain below-average. Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions, though there are indications that this is weakening. A CPC La Niña Advisory remains in place for January 2023. The majority of models (19 out of 23) in the IRI ENSO prediction plume predict SSTs to transition from the level of a La Niña to ENSO-neutral state during Feb-Apr 2023. The likelihood of El Niño remains low through May-Jul 2023 (44% chance) but becomes the dominant category thereafter with probabilities in the 53-57% range. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring on January 25, 2023: 

SST was observed near-neutral around the Maldives.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
9th Feb	-	20 mm	10 mm
10th Feb	-	20 mm	40 mm
11th Feb	-	20 mm	20 mm
12th Feb	-	-	10 mm
13th Feb	-	-	10 mm
14th Feb	-	10 mm	10 mm

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of below-normal tercile by 50% for the entire Maldives between 11^th- 24^th Feb.  

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Near-normal precipitation tercile is probable for the entire islands from Feb-Mar-Apr 2023 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of near-neutral range.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 6 & 7 and shall strengthen in the next two weeks (9 Feb – 23 Feb 2023). MJO in phases 6 & 7 usually suppress the rainfall over the Maldives.