Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – June 2022

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During May, the northern islands received up to 25 mm of rainfall while the remaining islands received less. The average rainfall exceeded climatology in the Northern islands by 13%; and was in deficit by 41% in the Central islands and by 21% in the southern islands.

Predictions: A weak La Niña is expected to continue in the months ahead. Seasonal climate predictions predict a climatological average from July to September 2022 for the Maldives.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In July, the entire country usually receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind direction in July is usually westerly but with low speeds wind speed. In August and September, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed do not change.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
	Northern Islands	Central Islands	Southern Islands
11th June	-	10 mm	30 mm
12th June	5 mm	-	5 mm
13th June	5 mm	-	-
14th June	-	-	10 mm
15th June	5 mm	-	-
16th June	5 mm	-	10 mm
17th June	10 mm	5 mm	10 mm
18th June	-	5 mm	5 mm
19th – 20th June	-	-	-
21st June	5 mm	20 mm	10 mm
22nd June	-	-	-
23rd June	10 mm	20 mm	10 mm
24th June	5 mm	50 mm	5 mm
25th June	40 mm	20 mm	5 mm

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring: : In May, the northern islands received up to 25 mm and central and southern islands received up to 10 mm above average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,

shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 200 mm from an average of 1500 mm average

     Central islands: Deficit of 700 mm from an average of 1700 mm average
     Southern islands: Deficit of 375 mm from an average of 1775 mm average

Dekadal Rainfall Estimates:

             1-10  June, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 

                                                                     Central Islands: 5 mm rainfall 
                                                                     Southern Islands: 5 mm rainfall 

10-21 June, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 20 mm rainfall 

                                                                      Central Islands: 20 mm rainfall 
                                                                      Southern Islands: 60 mm rainfall 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State June 20, 2022 :

In mid-June, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific remain below-average (warming slightly). Key oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña conditions, although weakened slightly. A La Niña Advisory still remains in place for June 2022.A large majority of the models in the plume predict SSTs to remain below-normal at the level of a weak La Niña until Jul-Sep 2022.The official CPC/IRI outlook forecasts a continuation of the La Niña event with moderate probability (52% chance) during Jul-Sep 2022, continuing into boreal fall and winter with 51-59% likelihood (Text Courtesy IRI).

Indian Ocean Monitoring on June 15, 2022: 

0.5 ⁰C below average SST was observed around the central and the southern Islands.

Predictions

Daily Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA GFS model predicts up to up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire islands on 28^th - 29^th June; Up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm of rainfall in the central and southern islands on 30^th June; Up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; up to 20 mm of rainfall in the central islands; and up to 10 mm of rainfall in the southern islands on 1^st – 2^nd July; Up to 70 mm of rainfall in the central islands; 40 mm of rainfall in the southern islands; and 10 mm of rainfall in the northern islands on 3^rd July; and up to 20 mm of rainfall in the central islands; and up to 10 mm of rainfall in the northern and southern island on 4^th July. 

Biweekly Rainfall Forecast:

NOAA/NCEF GFS model predicts higher probability of above-normal tercile in the northern, central and some of the southern islands between 2^nd - 15^th July.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Near-normal precipitation tercile is probable in the Maldives from July-August-September 2022 and seasonal rainfall forecast is higher likelihood of near-neutral range.

MJO Index: 

The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 2 & 3 and shall strengthen in the next two weeks (26 June – 10 July 2022). MJO in phases 2 & 3 usually enhance rainfall over the Maldives.