Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – November 2020

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During October, the central islands received above-normal rainfall while the northern and Southern islands of Maldives received less. Over the 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 27% in the Northern islands by 33%.

Predictions: With weak La Nina conditions from November anticipated, dry conditions are set to prevail across Maldives from November-February 2020. However, the seasonal temperature remains climatological – perhaps the La Nina influence is countervailed by the prevailing anomalously warm ocean.

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Northern islands get north-easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind. Usually, in January northern islands receive up to 50 mm rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100 mm, and 250 mm rain respectively. The wind is northeasterly. In February, northern islands receive rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm rain. The wind is northeasterly.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
7th November 2020	Up to 30 mm in the northern islands.
8th November 2020	Up to 30 mm in the northern islands and up to 20 mm in central and southern islands.
9th November 2020	Up to 80 mm in the southern islands; up to 60 mm in central islands and 20 mm in northern islands.
10th November 2020	Up to 40 mm in the southern islands; up to 20 mm in central islands and 10 mm in northern islands.
11th November 2020	Up to 20 mm in the southern islands.
12th November 2020	Up to 30 mm in the central and southern islands and up to 10 mm in northern islands.
13th November 2020	Up to 60 mm in the northern islands and up to 40 mm in southern islands.
14th November 2020	Up to 60 mm in the central islands; up to 40 mm in northern islands and up to 10 mm in southern islands.
15th November 2020	Up to 40 mm in the entire island.
16th November 2020	Up to 80 mm in the northern and central islands; and up to 60 mm in southern islands.
17th November 2020	Up to 100 mm in the northern islands; up to 80 mm in central islands and 20 mm in southern islands.

Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring:

In October, central islands received up to 10 mm and; northern and southern islands received up to 5 mm above average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,

shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 400 mm from an average of 1500 mm average.

Central islands: Deficit of 50 mm from an average of 1700 mm average.

Southern islands: Excess of 350 mm from an average of 1800 mm average.

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State November 11, 2020 :

In mid-Nov 2020, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, although SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña while the atmosphere continues to maintain largely ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. The official CPC/IRI outlook slightly favors La Niña development, and carries a La Niña watch.

Indian Ocean Monitoring on November 11, 2020: 

0.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO significantly enhanced the rainfall in phase 2 and phase 3 from 10^th– 24^th November.

Predictions

Daily and Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

IMD GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central islands and up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands on 24^thNov; up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central islands and up to 10 mm in southern islands on 25^thNov; up to 20 mm of rainfall in the central and up to 10 mm in southern and northern islands on 26^thNov; up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire island on 27^thNov; up to 20 mm of rainfall in the central island and up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands on 28^thNov and up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire island on 29^thNov . According to NOAA CFS model up to 25 mm of rain is expected for 24^th–29^thSep in the entire country and no extreme rainfall for coming six days.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Forecast:

Above-normal temperature tercile is 45% probable in the northern islands; Below-normal temperature tercile is 45% probable in southern and 40% probable in central islands and seasonal rainfall forecast is climatological.