Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – April 2020

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During March, the whole country received normal rainfall for the season. During last year the northern and southern Islands have an excess of 400 mm and the central Islands have an excess of 250 mm of rainfall. The sea surface temperature around Maldives was 1.5 ⁰C above normal. This is extremely warm.

Predictions: IMD GFS model predicts rainfall up to 20 mm of rainfall in the central islands and up to 10 mm in southern islands during 6^th-7^th April. From 8^th-10^th, daily rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the central islands  Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 50 mm for the whole country next week. 
 

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of average rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is easterly and in northern islands, it’s south-easterly. Rainfall usually increase up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds.

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
19th March	Up to 20 mm in the southern islands.
20th March	Up to 10 mm in the central islands.
21st – 31st March	No Rainfall.
1st April	Up to 5 mm in the central islands.
2nd April	No Rainfall.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In March, the whole country received up to 75 mm of total rainfall, which is normal for the season.

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State March 19, 2020 :

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were neutral, but above average during mid-March. Patterns in atmospheric variables are split between neutral and borderline El Niño conditions. Most model forecasts favor warm-neutral SST conditions during spring, cooling to average by early summer. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts, calling for continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Indian Ocean Monitoring on March 25, 2019: 

1.5 ⁰C above average SST was observed around Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 2 from Mar 18-21; in Phase 3 from Mar 22-26; and in Phase 4 from Mar 27-31. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS daily rainfall up to 20 mm of is expected in the central islands and up to 10 mm in southern islands during 6^th-7^th April. From 8^th-10^th, daily rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the central islands.