Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Maldives – January 2020

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: During January, the whole country received normal rainfall for the season. During last year the northern and southern Islands have an excess of 400 mm and the central Islands have an excess of 300 mm of rainfall. The sea surface temperature around the Maldives was 1 ⁰C above normal. This is extremely warm.

Predictions: IMD GFS the model predicts up to 10 mm of rainfall in the entire country on February 3^rd. On the 4^th, up to 40 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands; up to 10 mm in central and southern islands. On the 5^th, rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the whole country. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations anticipate total rainfall up to 50 mm for the whole country next week.  

Printable Text Summary Part 1 (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In February, northern islands receive average rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. Usually in March, northern and central islands receive rainfall up to 50 mm while southern islands receive up 100 mm of rain. Wind is northeasterly. In April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is westerly and in northern islands, it’s northwesterly. 

Figures Part 2 (PDF)

Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:

17th -22nd January	No Rainfall.
23rd January	Up to 10 mm in the central islands and islands.
24th January	Up to 50 mm in the southern islands and up to 20 mm in central islands.
25th   January	Up to 50 mm in the southern islands.
26th January	Up to 20 mm in the southern islands.
27th – 31st January	No Rainfall.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In January, the whole country received normal rainfall. The central and southern islands received up to 100 mm of total rainfall; and northern islands up to 60 mm. 

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State January 21, 2020:

SSTs in the east-central Pacific were near the borderline of weak El Niño levels during mid-January. Patterns in atmospheric variables have mainly maintained neutral conditions, with some trends toward El Niño. Most model forecasts favor borderline weak El Niño SST conditions during winter, returning to ENSO-neutral by early spring and beyond. The official CPC/IRI outlook is consistent with these model forecasts.

Indian Ocean Monitoring on January 22, 2020: 

1 ⁰C above average SST was observed around the Maldives.

MJO Index: 

The MJO was significant in Phase 5 from Jan 11-14; in Phase 6 from Jan 15-19; and in Phase 7 from Jan 20-24. Usually rainfall in Maldives is augmented in Phase 2.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS rainfall, up to 10 mm of is expected in the entire country on February 3^rd. On the 4^th, up to 40 mm of rainfall is expected in the northern islands; up to 10 mm in central and southern islands.

th, rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the whole country. From 6^th - 8^th, rainfall up to 10 mm of is expected in the central and southern islands.