Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction Highlights for Maldives – January 2017

HIGHLIGHTS

• Southern islands received up to 20 mm of rainfall during the first two weeks of January while the Northern and Central islands remained dry. 
• NOAA CFS long-range weather prediction model predicts up to 75 mm total rainfall for Northern islands during 19th – 24th Jan. 
• The sea surfaces around Southern Maldives is 0.5⁰C below the seasonal averages. The temperatures in Maldives are predicted to be slightly above average for next two months. 

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Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – December 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: The rainfall received by the northern islands for December is the lowest rainfall received in past six years. The Northern Islands have a deficit by 400 mm cumulative rainfall over the last 365 day compared to normal years. The rainfall in the Southern Islands do not show a deficit for the last year or for December aided by heavy rainfall in the last week of December. The sea surface temperature around Maldives is up to 0.5 ⁰C above the seasonal average with lower values to the South. 

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts rainfall have a tendency towards near-normal tercile and seasonal temperature to the above normal tercile for January to March of 2017. For the Pacific sea surfaces models suggest weak La Niña conditions as the SST anomaly is close to -0.50C. Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not expect heavy rainfall in the next week.

The rainfall received by the northern islands for December is the lowest rainfall received in past six years.

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---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI