Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – November 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

Monitored: In November, southern islands received up to 120 mm above average rainfall while some of northern and central islands received up to 90 mm below average rainfall. During the last week of November, an increase in rainfall throughout the country was visible. The sea surface temperature around southern and central Maldives is up to 0.50C above the seasonal average. In the northern islands, 15% decrease in cumulative rainfall for this year thus far is observed compared to the average cumulative rainfall since 2003. 

Predictions: IRI seasonal prediction predicts climatological rainfall until the end of 2016. Weak La Niña conditions have set in - the Pacific SST anomaly is close to -0.50C. iIn the next week, Long Range Weather prediction models simulations do not anticipate extreme rainfall but heavy rainfall is expected in some places.

Northern islands received up to 120 mm rainfall in November

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In December, northern islands receive up to 150 mm while central and southern islands receive up to 200 mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Northern islands get north easterly wind while southern islands get northerly wind. Usually in January northern islands receive up to 50 mm rain while central and southern islands receive up to 100mm and 250 mm rain respectively. Wind is north easterly. In February, northern islands receive rainfall less than 50 mm while central islands receive up 50 mm rain and southern islands receive up to 100 mm rain. Wind is north easterly.


Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Rainfall Monitoring:


Date Rainfall
19th Nov 2016 Up to 60 mm in southern and central islands. Up to 20 mm in northern atolls.
20th Nov 2016 Up to 60 mm in central islands. Up to 20 mm in northern atolls.
21st Nov 2016 Up to 60 mm in the entire country.
22nd Nov 2016 Up to 60 mm in northern and southern islands. Up to 20 mm in central islands.
23rd Nov 2016 Up to 60 mm in northern and central islands. Up to 35 mm in central islands.
24th Nov 2016 Up to 60 mm in central islands. Up to 20 mm in northern islands.
25th Nov 2016 Up to 60 mm in the entire country.
26th Nov 2016 Up to 60 mm in northern islands. Up to 20 mm in southern islands.
27th Nov 2016 Up to 20 mm in central islands.
28th-30th Nov 2016 No rainfall.



Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

In November 2016, Maalhosmadulu, Faadhippolhu, Male and Felidhoo islands received ~90 mm rainfall below the climatological average and rest of the islands received ~120 mm rainfall above the climatological average. Entire country received up to ~100 mm of rainfall towards the end of November. This is the second highest rainfall recorded in northern islands during the past 6 years for the month of November. Central islands including Kolhumadulu atoll received up to ~600 mm rain in November while rest of the southern and the northern islands received up to ~300 mm rain.


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State Oct 20, 2016:

During mid-November 2016 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was slightly cooler than -0.5C, the threshold for weak La Niña. Also, most of the atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific have been consistent with weak La Niña conditions. The upper and lower atmospheric winds have been suggestive of a strengthened Walker circulation, and the cloudiness and rainfall have also been consistent with weak La Niña conditions. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs near or slightly cooler than the threshold of La Niña during the remainder of fall, persisting through mid-winter, then weakening to cool-neutral by later winter. (Text Courtesy IRI)

Indian Ocean Monitoring October 26, 2016: 

~0.50C above average SST was observed around the central and southern islands of Maldives




Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model up to 10 mm rain on the 6th in southern islands. There shall be up to 10 mm rainfall in northern and southern islands during 7th and 8th. Up to 10 mm and 20 mm rainfall is expected in the northern and southern islands respectively on the 9th. Up to 20 mm and 40 mm rainfall on the 9th and up to 40 mm and 70 mm during 10th-11th is expected in central and southern islands respectively.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for December to February 2017, rainfall shall be climatological in the entire country. The 3-month average temperature has a 40% likelihood to be in the above-normal tercile in southern islands during these 3 months. Temperature in northern islands shall be climatological.



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