Friday, August 12, 2016

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – July 2016


HIGHLIGHTS

The entire country received up to 200 mm less than average rainfall in June 2016. In July, northern and central islands received up to 200 mm above average rainfall while southern islands received up to 100 mm below average rainfall. The amount of rainfall received by northern and central islands is the highest amount received in past six years in these regions. Since the last week of July a decrease in rainfall throughout the country was visible and the first week of August was mostly dry. Dry conditions shall prevail in the second week of August as well. ENSO models predict likely development of La Niña conditions during August or September.


Rainfall Anomaly in June 2016. The Entire country received below average rainfall

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)


---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds. In July the entire country receives up to 200 mm rainfall and the wind speed and direction does not change. In August, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains up to 200 mm. The wind direction and speed is similar to previous months.


Climatology



Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring:

Date Rainfall
20th July 2016 Less than 10 mm in central and southern islands
21st July 2016 Up to 60 mm in southern islands and up to 100 mm in south-eastern sea.
22nd July 2016 Up to 60 mm in southern islands.
23rd,- 25th July 2016 No Rainfall
26th July 2016 Up to 10 mm in northern islands
27th July 2016 Up to 50 mm in northern islands
28th &29th June 2016 Up to 20 mm in central and southern islands
30th July 2016 Up to 50 mm in southern islands
31st July 2016 Less than 10 mm in northern islands
1st- 4th August 2016 No Rainfall



Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

During June 2016 the entire country received below average rainfall. Up to 250 mm rain was received by northern and south central islands while the rest of the country received up to 120 mm rain. Similar rainfall was seen during July as well, but compared to historical rainfall in July this received rainfall was above average except in southern islands. Rainfall received by northern and central islands this year is the highest amount in last 6 years.


Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State July 21, 2016:

During mid-July 2016 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was slightly below zero, indicating ENSO-neutral conditions. The key atmospheric variables also indicate neutral ENSO conditions. This includes near-average upper and lower level tropical Pacific winds, as well as mainly near-normal cloudiness and rainfall patterns in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Most ENSO prediction models indicate neutral ENSO conditions during July, with likely development of La Niña during August or September, lasting through fall and into winter. Most likely strength is weak.

Indian Ocean Monitoring August 3, 2016: 

Neutral SST observed near Maldives




Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to IMD GFS model, up to 40 mm rain is expected in the Maldives on 9th & 10th of August and no rainfall is expected until the 15th. No extreme rainfall conditions are expected during this period.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for August to October 2016, the rainfall shall be climatological in the entire country. The 3-month average temperature has a 60- 80% likelihood to be in the above-normal tercile during these 3 months in the entire country.



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