Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – June 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

Heavy rainfall was seen in the entire Maldives in May 2016 and the rainfall gradually decreased during the first three weeks of June. In northern and central islands, rainfall ceased by mid-June and in southern islands, rainfall ceased by early June and increased until mid-June up to 60 mm. NOAA CFS model does not predict heavy rainfall in the next few days in any part of the Maldives. The IRI predicts La Niña conditions by late June which shall give a drier tendency to rainfall in central and south central regions. In Northern and southernmost island rainfall shall have a wetter tendency. The sea around the Maldives show a much reduced level of warming.

Rainfall in the southern islands of the Maldives in the last 6 years.

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---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds. In July the entire country receives up to 200 mm rainfall and the wind speed and direction does not change. In August, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains up to 200 mm. The wind direction and speed is similar to previous months.

Climatology

Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
14th June 2016	Up to 20 mm in central and southern islands. Up to 70 mm in south eastern sea
15th June 2016	Up to 15 mm near Gan. Up to 70 mm in south eastern sea
16th June 2016	No rainfall
17th & 18th June 2016	Up to 10 mm in entire Maldives
19th June 2016	Up to 70 mm in southern islands and southern sea.
20th – 22nd June 2016	Up to 15 mm in the entire Maldives.
23rd – 25th June 2016	Up to 10 mm in southern islands
26th- 28th June 2016	No Rainfall

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

More than 100 mm heavy rainfall was seen in the entire country during May 2016 and gradually decreased during June in northern and central islands. Rain completely ceased in these islands by mid-June. In southern islands, up to 200 m rain was seen in mid-May and the rain ceased completely by Early-June. The first week was dry and thereafter rainfall increased up to 60 mm until mid-June.

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State June 16, 2016:

During mid-June 2016 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was near zero, indicating ENSO-neutral conditions. The key atmospheric variables also indicate neutral ENSO condition. This includes near-average upper and lower level tropical Pacific winds, as well as near-normal cloudiness and rainfall patterns in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Most ENSO prediction models indicate neutral ENSO conditions during June, with likely development of La Niña (of unknown strength, but likely weak) by late July or August, lasting through fall and into winter.

Indian Ocean Monitoring June 22, 2016: 

Neutral SST observed near Maldives

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to NOAA CFS models, Heavy rainfall events are not expected during 29th June- 4th July. The entire country shall receive up to 50 mm total rainfall during this period.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for July to September 2016, the rainfall shall be climatological in the entire country. The 3-month average temperature has a 70- 80% likelihood to be in the above-normal tercile during these 3 months in the entire country.