Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction Highlights for Maldives – July 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

Heavy rainfall was observed throughout the country during the first week of July with Central and Southern islands receiving rainfall up to 40 mm. During the second week of July the rainfall decreased gradually with only Central islands receiving light rainfalls. IRI CFS model predicts up to 50 mm total rainfall for Northern islands and less than 50 mm for Central islands during 11th – 16th July. GFS (T574) model predicts rainfall up to 10 mm for entire Maldives and a gradual increase in rainfall for Northern islands up to 40 mm in the coming week.

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Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – June 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

Heavy rainfall was seen in the entire Maldives in May 2016 and the rainfall gradually decreased during the first three weeks of June. In northern and central islands, rainfall ceased by mid-June and in southern islands, rainfall ceased by early June and increased until mid-June up to 60 mm. NOAA CFS model does not predict heavy rainfall in the next few days in any part of the Maldives. The IRI predicts La Niña conditions by late June which shall give a drier tendency to rainfall in central and south central regions. In Northern and southernmost island rainfall shall have a wetter tendency. The sea around the Maldives show a much reduced level of warming.

Rainfall in the southern islands of the Maldives in the last 6 years.

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---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI