Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – May 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

Extraordinary Rainfall close to 60 mm/day was observed in and around the Maldives which caused flooding in many islands. The highest average daily rainfall is typically 7 mm/day. The sea around the Maldives also had rainfall excess of 100 mm/day. This high rainfall ceased on the 20th and no heavy rainfall was seen in the Maldives since that day. The rainfall observed in the first weeks of May is the highest rainfall received by Northern and Southern islands this year. The first four months had been dry in the Northern Maldives and therefore this rain helped to lessen the cumulative rainfall deficit in this region since last December, Global weather model prediction does not expect any extreme rainfall in the remaining days of this month. The Sea surface around the Maldives and Sri Lanka has become cooler and its Only 0.5 0C above average This had risen up to 1 0C in the previous months while the El Niño was strong. El Nino is now moderate and is expected to become neutral by the end of this month.

Rainfall anomalies in Maldives in Feb 2016. Southern most atolls received above average rainfall while northern most atolls received average rainfall.

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---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

Rainfall usually is up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction is westerly and the speed is higher than in April. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds. In July the entire country receives up to 200 mm rainfall and the wind speed and direction does not change.

Climatology

Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
8th May 2016	Up to 20 mm in Central islands
9th May 2016	Up to 60 mm near Male and Gan, up to 40 mm in the rest of the country and up to 140 mm in the sea south of Gan
10th May 2016	Up to 60 mm in Nilandhoo, Kudahuvadhoo & Veymandoo atolls
11th and 12th May 2016	Up to 60 mm in Northern & Southern islands, up to 20 mm in Central Islands
13th May 2016	Up to 30 mm in Northern and Central islands, up to 140 mm in Southern sea
14th-15th May 2016	Up to 10 mm rain in the entire country
16-17th May 2016	Up to 80 mm rainfall in Southern and Central islands up to 50 mm in Northern islands
18th May 2016	Up to 140 mm rain in Southern and Central islands, up to 50 mm in the north
19th May 2016	Up to 100 mm in southern and central islands, up to 50 mm in Northern islands
20th-22nd May 2016	No Rainfall

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

During April up to 20 mm rain has fallen over northern islands, 60mm over central islands and 80 mm over southern islands. There was a spike in rainfall in the first weeks of May. It rained up to 100 mm in Northern and Central and up to 180 mm in southern islands. This high rainfall helped to lessen the rainfall deficit experienced in the northern islands while central and southern islands have received 15- 20% excess rainfall in the past 12 months than the historical average of the past 13 years.

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State May 19, 2016:

During mid-May 2016 the positive tropical Pacific SST anomaly was quickly weakening, now indicating only a weak El Niño. The atmospheric variables continue to support the El Niño pattern, but at much reduced strength. This includes only a mildly weakened Walker circulation and excess rainfall in the central tropical Pacific, failing to extend eastward as it did in previous months. Most ENSO prediction models indicate a return to neutral by the end of May, with likely development of La Niña (of unknown strength) by fall.

Indian Ocean Monitoring April 13, 2016: 

~0.5 0 C above average SST is observed near Maldives and Sri Lanka.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to NOAA CFS models, Heavy rainfall events are not expected during 23rd- 28th may. The sea north of the Maldives closer to South India shall receive up to 200 mm total rainfall during these days.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for June to August 2016, the rainfall shall be climatological in the entire country. The 3-month average temperature has a 70- 80% likelihood to be in the above-normal tercile during these 3 months in the entire country.