Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – October 2015

HIGHLIGHTS

High rainfall during September throughout the country decreased the rainfall deficit. The rainfall deficit in the country has come down to less than 10% of expected average. An increasing trend in rainfall can be seen in the past couple of months. Extreme rainfall is expected throughout the country during the next couple of days. Seasonal rainfall prediction models predict a continuation of above average rainfall during the next 2 months. The sea surface temperature around the Maldives is unusually warm. The Indian Ocean Dipole continues to be active.

Rainfall in Central Maldives in the past 6 years. The black line shows the rainfall this year which shows  large spikes after August 2015. Rainfall observed in September 2015 is the highest in the last 6 years.

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---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI