Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – June 2015


In the last week of June and the first week of June high rainfall was observed in the entire Maldives and then a rapid decrease was observed. No rainfall was observed in the past week in any part of Maldives. High rainfall is expected in the Northern tip of Maldives particularly in the seat towards the Kerala Coast. IRI multi-model 3 month seasonal precipitation predictions point to a tendency to a less than average rainfall in southern-most islands of the country. Both the El Nino and Indian Ocean warm conditions are driving warmer seasonal temperatures.

Rainfall Anomaly in May 2015. Highly above average rainfall was observed in the sea east of Central and Northern islands.

 Printable Version of the Full Report (PDF)

---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

  1. Monthly Climatology
  2. Rainfall Monitoring
    1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
    2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
    3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
  3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
  4. Rainfall Predictions
    1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
    2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI



Monthly Climatology:

High precipitation is usually observed in Northern Maldives in June and gradually decreases from north to south of Maldives (about 400 mm in northern islands and about 200 mm in southern islands). In July and August the rainfall decreases down to about 150 mm in northern islands and about 200 mm in central and southern islands. Wind direction is usually south-westerly in March and in April northern islands receive south-easterly wind while southern islands receive easterly wind. Strong easterly wind is usually observed in May and in June only northern islands get strong easterly wind. In July and August the entire country usually do not receive strong wind.



Weekly Monitoring:

During 14th- 20th of June no rainfall was observed in any part of the Maldives except for little rain in Addu Atoll on the 18th and in the Central Province on the 20th of June.

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

: Less than average rainfall was observed throughout the Maldives during May 2015. Very high above average rainfall was observed in the sea east of Male and Hanimaadhoo where rainfall averaging up to 30 mm/day was observed during this month. Northern islands received highest observed rainfall of about 90 mm at the end of May and a decrease in rainfall was observed during the first fortnight of June in this region. In Central islands rainfall reached up to 100 mm during the last week of May and the first week of June and thereafter a rapid decrease in rainfall was observed. A similar situation was observed in southern islands as well.

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State June 18, 2015:

During late May through early-June 2015 the SST was at a moderate El Niño level. The atmospheric variables support the El Niño pattern, including weakened trade winds and excess rainfall in the east-central tropical Pacific. The consensus of ENSO prediction models indicate continuation of moderate El Niño conditions during the June-August 2015 season in progress, likely strengthening further between summer and fall, and lasting into early 2016.

Indian Ocean Monitoring June 17, 2015: 

~1 degree Celcius Warmer than usual Sea surface temperature was observed around Maldives


Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to NOAA models, no rainfall is expected in Maldives during 22nd- 27th June 2015. But in the sea north east of Maldives toward Sri Lanka, very high rainfall is expected.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for July to September, the total 3 month precipitation shall be climatological except in the southern-most atoll of Maldives where there is a 40% chance of rainfall to be below normal. The 3 month average temperature has a 50- 60% likelihood for northern islands and about 80% likelihood for southern-most islands to be in the above-normal tercile during this period.

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