Friday, April 26, 2013

Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – March 2013

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Highlights

The cumulative rainfall of 20-40% deficit in in the past 365 days for Northern and Central Maldives highlights the drought conditions in the last two months, Southern Maldives too shows a deficit after having near normal rainfall in the previous 10 months. Although the El Nino/La Nina state in the Eastern tropical Pacific Ocean has been near-neutral the warm Central Indian Ocean sea surfaces are driving climate anomalies. In particular the seas around Northern and Southern are warmer than normally by up to 0.5 degrees C. Seasonal rainfall predictions for the next season (March-April-May) and following season (June-July-August) do not show shifts in rainfall tendencies, there is a higher likelihood of warmer temperatures across the Maldives.  




Image: SST Anomaly (Top) and Rainfall Deficit in South Maldives (Bottom)









Summary

CLIMATOLOGY


Monthly Climatology: 

The climatology refers to the average conditions experienced historically for a given month. Usually the climatology is a good guide to what one may expect in a given month absent other information.  The historical average rainfall for the Northern islands is high in July (200-250 mm), higher in August (250- 300 mm) and drops in September & October (100- 200 mm).  In the Central islands rainfall is usually moderate (150- 200 mm) during the August – October period. Heavy rainfall is typical for the Southern islands during these four months. The winds over the Northern & Central islands are usually westerly (from West to East) and wind speeds are expected to be high. For Southern islands, low wind speeds are expected for July and August but stronger westerly winds in September and October.



MONITORING


Weekly Monitoring: 

Some rainfall was observed on the 15th March 2013 in Southern-most islands of Maldives. Dry conditions were observed in the whole country during previous 5 days. (19th – 23rd February)

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

Relatively dry conditions persisted in all of Maldives with the cumulative rainfall deficit increasing all the time. The deficit over the last two months in all of Maldives is particularly likely to affect the Northern and Central Islands where the previous 10 months had significant (15-30%) deficits.

Sea Surface Temperatures and ENSO state: 

state: Although the El Nino/La Nina state in the Eastern tropical Pacific Ocean has been near-neutral the anomalously warm Central Indian Ocean sea surfaces are driving climate anomalies.

PREDICTIONS

Weekly Rainfall Forecast: 

Extreme rainfall events are not expected during 17th -22nd of March.



Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction: 

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for March to July 2013 rainfall shall remain climatological while temperature for March- May season shall be 40- 50% above normal.


Pacific Seas State March 21, 2013


During January and February the observed ENSO conditions have leaned towards La-Nina, but remained in the neutral range. Most of the ENSO prediction models call for neutral ENSO conditions through most of the second quarter of 2013, beyond which there is great uncertainty due to the time of year.

(Text Courtesy IRI)



Indian Ocean State March 18, 2013

.The Indian Ocean around Maldives, particularly to the South and North, has a warm anomaly of up to 0.5 ⁰C.


Inside this Issue


1.       Monthly Climatology
2.       Rainfall Monitoring
a.       Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
b.      Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
c.       Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
d.      Weekly Average SST Anomalies
3.       Rainfall Predictions
a.       Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
b.      Seasonal Predictions from IRI




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