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Heavier than expected rainfall was observed over the Northern and Central
islands of Maldives Central Islands Maldives and the tropical Eastern Pacific
Oceans South Maldives , where the rainfall deficit over the last
year was smaller, the heavier than expected rainfall compensated for the
drought conditions to some extent.
Image: Rainfall in 2012 (black) compared to rainfall in
previous 5 years in Northern Maldives
Image: Rainfall of past 365 days (black) compared to
average rainfall in previous 8 years. Note the continuous increase in rainfall deficit.
Summary
CLIMATOLOGY
Monthly Climatology:
The climatology refers to the average conditions
experienced historically for a given month. Usually the climatology is a good
guide to what one may expect in a given month absent other information. The historical average rainfall for the
Northern islands is high in July (200-250 mm ), higher in August (250- 300 mm ) and drops in September
& October (100- 200 mm ).
In the Central islands rainfall is
usually moderate (150- 200 mm )
during the August – October period. Heavy rainfall is typical for the Southern
islands during these four months. The winds over the Northern & Central islands
are usually westerly (from West to East) and wind speeds are expected to be
high. For Southern islands, low wind speeds are expected for July and August but
stronger westerly winds in September and October.
MONITORING
Weekly Monitoring:
0- 20
mm rainfall was estimated to have fallen over Northern
and Central islands of Maldives Maldives
Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:
The
rainfall this August has been higher than that during the previous 5 Augusts.
But by September, the rainfall gradually decreased this year. In Central
islands, high rainfall was observed in mid August which is also the highest
amount of rainfall observed in this region for this year. High rainfall was
observed in South islands in August as well, which diminished by the start of
September. Afterwards a gradual increase in rainfall is observed for the first
two weeks of September. Despite high rainfall in Maldives
Sea Surface Temperatures and ENSO state:
In the Pacific
Ocean , the ENSO state is moving towards an El Nino state. Most
models predict a transition in the coming months. The unusually warmer sea surfaces
of the Central Western Indian Ocean are stronger than normal during El Nino
periods. Past work has shown that these conditions lead to lower than average rainfall
in Sri Lanka and Northern Maldives upto September. Thereafter the rainfall is likely to be
higher than average for October to December.
PREDICTIONS
Weekly Rainfall Forecast:
Dry conditions are expected for Maldives for the period of 19th -24th of September 2012.Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:
As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for September 2012 to January 2013, there is a 40- 50% probability for precipitation to be above normal. Furthermore, there is 50% probability for Temperature to be above-normal.ENSO UPDATE 20th September, 2012
More than 80% of the ENSO prediction models predict
El Nino SST conditions during the September- November season, continuing into
Northern winter 2012-13. Among those predicting El Nino, very few predict more
than a weak event.
(Text
Courtesy IRI)
Inside this Issue
1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
a. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
b. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
c. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
d. Weekly Average SST Anomalies
3. Rainfall Predictions
a. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
b. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
More...
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