Experimental Climate Monitoring and Prediction for Maldives – April 2016

HIGHLIGHTS

Northern and central islands did not receive any rainfall during March 2016, but southern islands received around 100 mm rain during this month. In the first weeks of April, around 20 mm rainfall was seen for the first time this year in northern island. Central and southern islands also received 80- 100 mm rainfall, which is higher compared to previous months, in April. Rainfall in May is usually higher than in April for all of Maldives. With the weakening of El Niño conditions, higher rainfall can be expected next month. The global climate models are predicting climatological rainfall but warmer than climatological temperatures across Maldives.

Rainfall anomalies in Maldives in Feb 2016. Southern most atolls received above average rainfall while northern most atolls received average rainfall.

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---------------------------Inside this Issue------------------------

1. Monthly Climatology
2. Rainfall Monitoring
1. Daily Satellite derived Rainfall Estimates
   
2. Monthly Rainfall derived from Satellite Rainfall Estimate
3. Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring
3. Ocean Surface Monitoring
4. Rainfall Predictions
1. Weekly Predictions from NOAA/NCEP
2. Seasonal Predictions from IRI
   

SUMMARY

Climatology

Monthly Climatology:

In April, Southern islands usually receive about 150 mm of rainfall. The wind direction in southern and central islands is easterly and in northern islands it’s south-easterly. Rainfall usually increase up to 200 mm in May in the entire country. The wind direction remains the same but the speed increases. The rainfall in northern islands usually increases up to 250 mm in June, while it decreases to 150 mm in southern islands. Wind direction in June is usually easterly but with low speeds.

Climatology

Monitoring

Weekly Monitoring:

Date	Rainfall
9th April 2016	Up to 100 mm Near Malé, 60 mm in Central and Southern islands
10th April 2016	Up to 40 mm Near Gan
11th-14th April 2016	No rainfall
15th April 2016	Up to 30 mm in Central and Southern islands
16th April 2016	Up to 120 mm Central and Southern islands
17th April 2016	Up to 60 mm in southern-most islands- light rain in the rest of the country
18th April 2016	Up to 40 mm in Northern and Central island
19th April 2016	No Rainfall
20th April 2016	Up to 140 mm in Southern Sea, 100 mm in the Western sea
21st April 2016	Up to 120 mm in Southern islands, 30 mm in Central islands
22nd April 2016	Up to 140 mm in Southern Sea, 100 mm in the Western sea
223rd April 2016	No rainfall

Monthly and Seasonal Monitoring:

During March 2016, northern and central islands received less rainfall than expected while southern islands received more than expected. Northern islands remained dry during the 1 st quarter of 2016. In April about 20 mm rainfall was seen for the first time of the year. As a result, the rainfall deficiency has grown to about 10%. Central islands also did not receive any rainfall during March, but did receive moderate amount (~60 mm) of rainfall in the early weeks of April. Southern islands also received about 100 mm in March and High rainfall continued in the first 3 weeks of April. These islands have received about 20% more rainfall than the average in the past 12 months.

Ocean State Monitoring:

Pacific Seas State April 21, 2016:

During mid-April 2016 the positive tropical Pacific SST anomaly was weakening, indicating only a moderate strength El Niño. All atmospheric variables continue to support the El Niño pattern, but at reduced strength. This includes weakened trade winds and excess rainfall in the east- central tropical Pacific, extending eastward to a lesser extent than last month. Most ENSO prediction models indicate continued weakening El Niño conditions during the rest of the northern spring season, returning to neutral by late spring or early summer 2016, with La Niña development likely by fall.

Indian Ocean Monitoring April 13, 2016: 

Warmer than usual 0 1 C Sea surface temperature was observed around Maldives as is typical for an El Nino.

Predictions

Weekly Rainfall Forecast:

According to NOAA CFS models, only light rainfall is expected in the Maldives during 24 th - 29 th April. may. The sea north of the Maldives closer to South India shall receive up to 200 mm total rainfall during these days.

Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Prediction:

As per IRI Multi Model Probability Forecast for May to July 2016, the rainfall shall be climatological in the entire country. The 3-month average temperature has a 70- 80% likelihood to be in the above-normal tercile during these 3 months in the entire country.